(Editor’s note: We have added Embiid’s previously omitted 2021-22 scoring championship into the mix for his candidacy.)

Nikola Jokić is a Hall of Famer.

Well, technically, not yet. But he will be.

(Wait a minute, Rob, this sounds familiar. <<clicks link>> Are you intentionally copying your lede from last year? I mean…)

Well, I do try to borrow from the best. Last year, I theorized if Milwaukee Bucks’ Greek god power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo had retired before last season, he would be a future, surefire lock for induction into Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. So, what this is, is …

This is what, Rob?

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It’s …

Saaaaay it …

It’s an apology to Jokić, the now reigning back-to-back MVP, for not writing in last year’s piece that he, too, should be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Because – based on my own metrics – I should have included him in the locks, and I didn’t. (I’ll explain why I hedged a little further down.) My bad, Nikola.

Felt good, didn’t it?

It did, imaginary narrative foil, it did. And now that’s out of the way, let’s get to the business at hand: Jokić as a lock and how we got here by revisiting my oversight.

In the inaugural article, I noted there are four forward-facing achievements that nearly guarantee an NBA player’s election to the Hall of Fame: MVP, Finals MVP, scoring champ and top 50 all-time career points.

Every hall-eligible NBA MVP is in the Hall in Springfield, Mass. Every hall-eligible NBA single-season scoring champ is in the hall, except for one: Max Zaslofsky. Every hall-eligible NBA Finals MVP, save two (Cedric Maxwell and Chauncey Billups), is enshrined. Every NBA hall-eligible top-50 scorer except Tom Chambers (20,049) and Antawn Jamison (20,042) has been honored. (Don’t look now, but DeMar DeRozan is No. 50 on the NBA list with 19,869 career points.)

Why did I select those honors to highlight potential future Hall of Famers? One, those four have a nearly unassailable track record when determining which NBA player will be in the hall. Two, because basketball doesn’t have the adherence to certain career numbers that, say, the Baseball Hall of Fame (3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 home runs) has. (Or had, but that’s a different column). Those NBA honors and achievements are easy for even the most casual fan to understand.

I also chose those two for another reason: because the hall’s selection process is famously secretive. As ESPN’s Baxter Holmes writes:

There is always a question of what qualifies one to be a Hall of Famer: What is the criteria? To Colangelo, the answer is simply their “body of work,” which leaves room for interpretation.

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While the Stonecutters of the basketball hall have their reasons, these are my interpretations of an NBA player’s body of work.

Back to Jokić. Why did I have a momentary lapse of reason last year? I hedged.

Based on the MVP metric, Jokić should be a lock, correct? Correct. But if he retired today, would he be in the hall? More than likely, yet the difference between him and, say, any other one-time MVP is sustained excellence. Jokić doesn’t need to have another MVP season to be a Hall of Famer, but he needs to continue to be in the MVP conversation and add All-NBA nods and All-Star games to the mix in the next few seasons to be a lock-lock. Plus, if he plays 15 seasons and accumulates the counting stats, he’ll be in Springfield, no doubt. 

“No doubt.” Yeah, about that…

I soft-pedaled his HOF candidacy because of one number: 453. After his first MVP season, Jokić had played 453 regular-season games in six seasons. Was that enough of a career? And, if he got injured and never returned to superstar status, would his career be similar to Derrick Rose, another former MVP whose hall status is borderline at best? In last year’s piece, we talked about the Rose exception, and that was at the front of my mind when I approached Jokić.

Apparently, it wasn’t a question exclusive to me.

When we put together The Athletic NBA 75, our ranking of the best players of all time, I asked a panelist why they thought Jokić fell short of making the list. That panelist noted, essentially, “Too soon.” (For the record, I had Jokić on my NBA 75 ballot, but more tellingly, he didn’t make the NBA’s 75th Anniversary team either, which featured every prior NBA MVP except for Rose. If we ever reassess our NBA 75, Jokić will undoubtedly make it. (I’d argue, he’d be at least top 40, probably top 30.)

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With Jokić now entering his eighth NBA season as the back-to-back MVP, that concern of not having enough of an accomplished CV is no longer valid, if it ever was. He’s one of 13 players in NBA history to win consecutive MVPs, and one of 15 players to win at least two in his career. He’s a four-time All-NBA selection and a four-time All-Star. Plus, because the Naismith Hall is a global game entity, his international contributions will make him a first-ballot lock.

So, sorry, Mr. Jokić. You deserved better from me. I’m looking forward to your speech.

As for the other future Hall of Famers playing in the NBA, let’s go through some of the stats (regular, advanced, and new to the equation) in an attempt to predict an active player’s future credentials.

The Big Four

Mentioned this above: MVP, Finals MVP, scoring champ, top 50 in scoring. If you’re a member of any of these groups, you’re more than likely giving a speech in Springfield.

All-NBA

I didn’t use this one last year, but it’s a good indicator of which active players could be next. Every hall-eligible player who has made at least five All-NBA teams (First, Second or Third) has made the hall … except Amar’e Stoudemire and Kevin Johnson. Every hall-eligible player with at least three First Team All-NBA team honors is in the hall … except poor Max Zaslofsky, who has four.

Why do I mention three First Team honors? Because it could impact a certain Slovenian.

Other major award-winners

We’ve already established the MVPs as a gold standard for inclusion into the Hall, but what about Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Most Improved? And should we take All-Star Game MVPs into consideration?

For DPOY, 10 of the 16 hall-eligible players that won the award are in the Hall, including two players who have won it four times: Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace. This bodes well for Dwight Howard and Rudy Gobert, who have each won the award three times.

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Rookie of the Year is the only major award that a player can only win once, and there have been 73 official winners. Of the 57 hall-eligible players (16 are still active), 30 of those players are in. That’s not bad.

What’s not great is winning Most Improved. Only Tracy McGrady is in the hall. Giannis Antetokounmpo, who won in 2016-17, will join him. Eleven active players have won the award, and these names – Kevin Love, Paul George, Goran Dragić, Jimmy Butler, CJ McCollum, Victor Oladipo, Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle and Ja Morant – are worth watching.

All-Star Game MVP may be another honor that’s as close to a lock as it gets. Every hall-eligible player who has won All-Star MVP is in the hall, except for Adrian Smith (1966), Randy Smith (1978), Tom Chambers (1987) and Glen Rice (1997). Everyone else is either active or outside of their hall window, and each active one, from Giannis to Dwyane Wade, will be in the hall someday.

NBA 75th Anniversary Team

You won’t be surprised to learn that every member of the NBA at 50 is in the Hall. But what about the 75? Of the 26 players who were added to the 50 (26 because they had a tie), 13 are already in the Hall, two – Dirk Nowitzki and Wade – are locks and the other 11 are active.

Of the active players, nine are locks because of their MVPs, scoring titles and/or accumulation of points. The other two – Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard – reach none of those thresholds, but they do have enough All-NBA nods – six total for Lillard, four first-team selections for Davis. And when a blue-ribbon panel of players, coaches and media think you’re one of the 76-best players in league history, that “body of work” bodes well for your Hall of Fame candidacy.

What about advanced stats?

Top 60 PER (Player Efficiency Rating), Career

Always an intriguing category. There are 20 active players in the top 60, and the only hall-eligible player not in Springfield is Stoudemire.

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Top 50 Win Shares, Career

There are six active players in this category and four outside of their hall window. Only four hall-eligible players in the top 50 – Shawn Marion, Billups, Buck Williams and Horace Grant – haven’t been enshrined.

Top 50 Win Shares/48, Career

This list didn’t change much from last year – yes, it still includes Jonas Valančiūnas in the top 50 – but there are now 13 active players. Of those hall-eligible ones, only Kevin Johnson isn’t enshrined.

Top 50 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Career

There are 10 active players here, and all of them look hall-bound. Only five hall-eligible players – Marion, Billups, Larry Nance Sr., Terry Porter and Eddie Jones – are not in the hall.

This weekend, the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame welcomes its 63rd class with 16 enshrinees. That includes two NBA players (Tim Hardaway and Manu Ginóbili, the latter of which was one of our retired locks from last year), three former coaches who spent significant time with the Bucks (Larry Costello, Del Harris and George Karl) and media members such as Walt Frazier, who’s in the hall for the second time, and M.A. Voepel.

So, let’s have some fun and look at the active and recently retired players who are more than likely headed for enshrinement in Springfield.

(Editor’s note: Players in each section are listed in alphabetical order.)

Active locks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Carmelo Anthony, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green*, James Harden, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Nikola Jokić*, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard*, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson* Russell Westbrook
*New to active locks

OK, people, take a deep breath here. This group has a combined 13 regular season MVPs, 10 Finals MVPs, 12 All-Star Game MVPs, 13 combined scoring titles and 106 All-NBA nods. Throw in 20 Olympic golds, and now we’re just piling on. This group has done many things no other group of future Hall of Famers have done before.

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Barring injury, LeBron, with 37,062 career points, should pass Kareem (38,387) as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer some time this season. Kareem has held that record for 38 seasons, more than half the time the NBA has been in existence. Do you know how long LeBron will hold that record? Unless Luka Doncic plays for 20 years or KD hangs around for a while, LeBron holds this record probably forever. His other accolades are numerous: four MVPs, four Finals MVPs, eight straight Finals appearances, 10 Finals in total, one scoring title and one assist title at the age of 35, all while leading three different franchises to NBA championships. He’s seventh all time in assists and 10th in steals. If you combine his regular-season points with his playoff points, he has 44,693. We have never seen a career like it. We may never see it again.

Antetokounmpo is the only player in history to win MVP, Most Improved and Defensive Player of the Year. Melo is one of two players to win an NCAA title, a scoring title and a gold medal. (Hey, MJ!) Anthony is also ninth in career points. Curry just won his fourth title, earned his first Finals MVP, set the all-time 3-pointers record and is the only unanimous MVP in league history. Howard has three DPOYs and made five consecutive First Team All-NBA appearances. Durant has a nice sequential list of achievements: four scoring titles, three Olympic golds, two Finals MVPs (and two titles) and one regular season MVP. He also needs 1,884 points to go from No. 21 in scoring all time to top 10. Harden is the only player to win Sixth Man of the Year, MVP and a scoring title. Leonard is one of three players to win Finals MVP with two different teams. He’s also one of the greatest defenders the game has ever seen and earned back-to-back DPOYs in ‘15 and ‘16. CP3 is the only player to lead the league in steals per game six times. Westbrook, love him or hate him (and we know there’s little sentiment in between), is the only player to average a triple-double in four separate seasons. The first season he did it, he led the league in scoring. The other three times, he led the league in assists. And we covered Jokic’s bona fides up top.

AD doesn’t have any of the big four, but he has led the league in blocks per game three times, is a four-time First Team All-NBA, an All-Star MVP, an NBA champion, a gold medalist and a member of the NBA’s 75th anniversary team. Lillard doesn’t have any of the big four, but he has a plus-one: MVP of the Seeding Games. But he has more All-NBA selections than AD with six, has also a gold medal and was named to the NBA’s 75th anniversary team. (For the record, AD and Dame were in our NBA 75 as well.)

Draymond has a DPOY to his credit, seven All-Defensive nods, two All-NBA nods, four NBA titles and two gold medals. Klay is one of the game’s greatest shooters and is a five-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA and has four NBA titles to his credit, and a gold medal too. Klay’s all-time numbers would be higher if he hadn’t missed two seasons with injury. While the absence of individual accolades and gaudy counting numbers could give some pause, this pair is dynastic, having won four titles in six Finals appearances since 2015. They’ll be in Springfield, and Klay may be the first player to Zoom his acceptance speech from a boat.

Retired locks: Vince Carter, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Dwyane Wade

As I mentioned above, GINOBILI! graduated from this group into the Hall of Fame this year. Congrats, Manu!

We put Gasol in the “is he or isn’t he retired?” basket last year. (There was talk of his returning.) But now that he hasn’t played an NBA game since 2019, he’ll be in the Hall. He’s 40th in career points, 28th in career rebounds, 21st in blocks and has four All-NBA appearances. He’s a two-time champ and because international contributions come into play, his role as one of the key players in Spain’s golden age will also help.

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Parker will be the last of the Spurs’ big three to enter the Hall. He made four All-NBA teams, has four titles and one Finals MVP. He’ll be in Springfield next year with the other guys on this list: Gasol, Nowitzki and Wade, the last two having a Finals MVP to their credit with Dirk winning an MVP in 2007 and Wade winning a scoring title in 2009.

Finally, I know Vince Carter caused a slight kerfuffle in the comments last year, but he was Rookie of the Year, made eight All-Star Games, is 19th in points, averaged 20-plus points per game for 10 consecutive seasons and played a whopping 22 seasons. Twenty-two. Quibble if you will with his lack of the big four or not leading the league in a category, but there are players in the Hall who had done a lot less than Vince Carter.

Active, near-locks: Luka Dončić*, Joel Embiid*, Paul George*, Rudy Gobert*, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry
*New to near-locks

One of the fun things about losing oneself in the Basketball Reference.com site is the Hall of Fame Probability index (BBRHOFP). Let’s see how this group rates there: “Ctrl+F Doncic”

Uh, he only shows up “In the news” below. That’s right, Luka isn’t on the BBRHOFP. Not in the top 250 all-time, not in the top 100 of active players.

So, why is he here on our list? Three is his magic number. Luka has played four seasons and he’s been named to three All-NBA First Teams. There’s only one player in NBA history who has more First Team All-NBA nods and is not in the hall: poor Max Zaslofsky.

Is it too early to call Luka a lock? Or even a near lock? Maybe I’ve overcorrected from last year. Perhaps; but three First Team nods, career averages of 26.4, 8.5 boards and 8.0 assists and his excellence on the international stage makes his Hall of Fame potential difficult to ignore.

Gobert is one of three players to win three DPOYs. He has four All-NBA nods, but no First Team accolades yet. Still, the DPOYs and the All-NBAs make him a near-lock. Add a fourth DPOY to the mix in the future, and he’d be one of three to have won four. The other two, Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace, are in. … George has six All-NBA teams to his credit, seven All-Star Games and one Most Improved Player award. He also has four All-Defensive appearances. Injuries have played a big part in his career and those injuries are probably why he’s in a near-lock position and not in the sure-fire Hall of Famer section. … Embiid is getting much, much closer to Springfield because he has one of the big four: a scoring title, which he won last season, becoming the first center to do so since Shaquille O’Neal. He also has four All-NBA nods, all Second Team, but he’s in good company. There are 18 hall-eligible players with four All-NBA nods and all but two are in the Hall of Fame. Being a perennial MVP candidate and five-time All-Star doesn’t hurt either. … Lowry has a title, an All-NBA nod, six All-Star appearances and is 81st all-time in Win Shares. His BBRHOFP is 85.7 and is 12th among active players in that category. He’s 89th all-time, with Billups just behind him, and every hall-eligible player ahead of him, only one, Larry Foust, isn’t enshrined. … Irving is a hall-of-fame talent, probably one of the best small finishers at the rim in NBA history and probably has the greatest ball-handling repertoire the game has ever seen. He has a title, three All-NBA nods, seven All-Star Games, an All-Star Game MVP, a Rookie of the Year award and reached the hallowed 50-40-90 mark in 2021. Yes, his availability has been limited because of injuries and his decision-making, but I’m guessing, down the road, voters may look past this and vote him into Springfield.

Active, in the mix: Devin Booker*, Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Jayson Tatum*
*New to in the mix

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Booker and Tatum are two of the NBA’s brighter young stars. They each have an NBA Finals appearance and Tatum won the inaugural Eastern Conference finals MVP award. Booker made his first First Team All-NBA last season and has been an All-Star three times. His offensive production has been one of metronomic efficiency as he’s averaged 26.6, 26.6, 25.6 and 26.8 points per game in his last four seasons. … Tatum, too, has been to three All-Star Games and has made two All-NBA teams, joining Booker on the First Team last season. It’s hard not to see these making plenty more All-NBA teams and appearances deep into the postseason. If they keep doing that, they’re the next generation of Hall of Famers. … Through lots of hard work and coffee, Butler has forged himself into a great NBA player and one who is in the HOF mix. He’s a six-time All-Star, four-time All-NBA and a Most Improved Player award winner. According to the BBRHOFP, he has a 71.5 percent of making the Hall, which is 105th all-time. While being outside the top 100 sounds less-than-exclusive, every hall-eligible player from No. 90 to 120 is in the Hall with the exception of Shawn Marion. … DeRozan, as I noted above, is a top 50 scorer in NBA history. Those bucket-getters usually get into the Hall. He has five All-Star appearances and three All-NBA nods. While his BBRHOFP is low, it’s higher than Gobert’s. Still, if he can put together another solid three to four seasons, his career point total will be too hard for hall voters to ignore.

Active, could see it happening: LaMarcus Aldridge, Bradley Beal, Blake Griffin, Al Horford, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo

I combined a couple of categories from last year here. I had Beal “in the mix” last year, but he doesn’t have enough of the individual awards to be considered in the mix right at the moment. Now, if he leads the league in scoring, that’s a different argument. But he has the potential to put up a lot of points in the future and that could bode well. … Aldridge and Griffin are at the tail ends of their respective careers. They each have five All-NBA nods and a combined 13 All-Star appearances. Aldridge is 48th in NBA career points while Griffin has a Rookie of the Year award. … Horford had a whale of a postseason run for the Celtics in 2022, but he’s also a five-time All-Star and has one All-NBA team to his credit. His two titles at Florida could help any candidacy, too … Iguodala, famously, has a Finals MVP on his resume. He also has four NBA titles and is top 20 in career NBA steals. … Love has a title, a 2011 Most Improved Player award, the same season he led the NBA in rebounding and is a five-time All-Star. He’s played center, but he’s been one of the premier stretch-fours of this era. … Rondo is a name that came up a lot in the comments last year, so let’s look: he’s a three-time assist champ, a steals champ and a two-time NBA champ. His BBRHOFP is 60 percent, so, it could happen.

The Derrick Rose exception

As I noted last year, Rose is the only NBA MVP that we can’t call a lock for the hall. He had a stellar start to his career with a Rookie of the Year in 2009 and an MVP in 2011. But he’s battled injuries since 2012 and hasn’t had the trajectory of a Hall of Famer since then. But, if there’s any hope for his hall candidacy, one could look to Bill Walton, who had a potential stellar NBA career stalled by injuries and made the Hall. The biggest difference between Rose and Walton is Walton has a Finals MVP, two NBA titles and was one of the greatest college players ever. Maybe Rose could pull a late-career renaissance a la Grant Hill. But he’s turning 34 in October and time is running short. I could see him making it because of his early accomplishments, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him wait a while before getting the call.

So, gaze upon this group of players we’ve mentioned above and realize we have been watching an unprecedented group of exquisitely talented players. Lucky us. Enjoy them on the court while you can.

(Top photo of Nikola Jokić and Damian Lillard: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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