NASCAR at Martinsville: Our experts make predictions and picks as the Championship 4 takes shape

The Xfinity 500 at Martinsville will determine this season’s final four — who will spend the next three weeks racing for the title. Two drivers — Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson — are in. Two more will get in after Sunday’s race (2 p.m. ET). We asked our experts, Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck, what to expect as the season draws closer to a conclusion…

1. We’ll get to the cut for the Final Four in a minute, but to start with the NOOB question… do the cars generally get Halloween-ed up for a race this close to the holiday? If so, anything cool we can expect?

Jeff: Some pop up here and there, but it’s typically widespread. There used to be some great M&M’s paint schemes with the characters dressed up in costume on the side of the car and one of my favorites was when Corey LaJoie ran a Scooby Doo Mystery Machine paint scheme a few years back. This year, Xfinity Series driver Jeremy Clements might be the early leader for spooky schemes.

Jordan: You’ll often see some special Halloween-themed paint schemes, especially if they can be tied it into sponsor they have. It’s one of the unique elements that marks what is already a special weekend.

2. Follow-up: Is there any air of superstition in NASCAR? We’re this close to the final cut, the six drivers still on the outside looking in have to be willing to try anything, right? Same shirt underneath? Touch the car in the same spot every week? Carry a lucky coin? Anything?

Jeff: You could argue the NHL-style playoff beards fit this mold. Carolina Hurricanes fan William Byron seems to be growing one of those. The No. 78 Furniture Row team (which transitioned to the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team) used to do playoff beards as well, but that doesn’t seem to be the case during what has been a miserable playoff run this year.

Jordan: James Small, the crew chief for Martin Truex Jr., is a big believer in lucky socks. Another superstition for a long, long time was that green painted cars and peanuts were viewed as bad luck and something to be avoided at all costs. Largely, though, both superstitions are no longer a thing with green cars now commonplace.

3. Christopher Bell is in. Kyle Larson is in. We had a race in Martinsville back in April and you noted how Denny Hamlin owns that course (he’s this week’s massive favorite at +250). So let’s assume he wins and is in. Who do you think gets enough points to finish fourth and advances?

Jeff: If Hamlin wins, then the last spot should easily go to William Byron, who is currently +30 on the cutoff line. But I wouldn’t assume Hamlin is in, as that is going to be a tough task even if it’s his best track. Truex is going to be awesome there as well (if he avoids his recent playoff mishaps) and Ryan Blaney (who is currently +10 on the cutline) should be in contention. It doesn’t seem like Tyler Reddick or Chris Buescher can go win there and Byron is fairly safe, so the last spot should come down to Hamlin, Truex and Blaney.

Jordan: Something would have to go terribly wrong for Byron to not advance. This is the safety net that being 30 points above the cut line and 20 points clear of Blaney for the final spot provides where you know you’re moving on even with just a so-so day.

4. How intricate is the gamesmanship here with Hamlin and Truex Jr. being teammates and trying to help each other, but also looking to beat out the other drivers to get in and advance? Will there be any in-race strategy shifts to try and get both in somehow?

Jeff: Ultimately, they’re probably going to have to win in order to make the Championship 4 and there’s no reasonable path to both making it because Byron is so far ahead of them in points. They’re just going to have to race it out and put the teammate element aside. It’s worth remembering Truex is an extremely clean driver – sometimes to his own detriment – while Hamlin probably wouldn’t be as shy about using the bumper on his teammate for the win if it came to that.

Jordan: The teammate thing generally goes to the side when a spot in the Championship 4 is on the line. But as Jeff noted, Truex is not someone who’s keen on putting a bumper to a competitor even if the stakes are high, whereas Hamlin has little qualms doing so. On Sunday, we may see just how far each is willing to go to avoid elimination.

5. If someone decides now is the time to retaliate against a driver in contention for the final four for something in the past that has since gone unanswered, is that considered part of the game and a dish best served cold, or is it completely frowned upon?

Jeff: Not this year. There don’t seem to be any current rivalries that would justify this move. If Hamlin and Ross Chastain had kept things going and it was still unsettled, that could have been possible. Right now, though, any such retaliation to take a final four contender out would be way over the top and viewed negatively for the offending driver. Like if Kyle Larson decided to get Hamlin back for Pocono or something and kept him out of the final four, that would be absurd.

Jordan: No rivalries are bubbling at the moment that creates the impression something could flair up on Sunday. That doesn’t meant there won’t be on-track theatrics, just that it will come from what’s transpiring during the race and not carrying over from something that happened earlier in the season.

6. Do you have a favorite yet to win it all?

Jeff: I’ve been saying Hamlin the entire playoffs until last week. Now, clearly, he’s in trouble. It feels like whoever wins the title is going to have to go through Larson at Phoenix, and the No. 5 team has the edge among the trio that also includes Byron and Christopher Bell.

Jordan: This feels like Larson’s championship to lose, though the way Bell is peaking is raising eyebrows.

(Top photo: James Gilbert/Getty Images; pic of William Byron: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

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